Exactly a year ago a feature in this series had covered the perils of airline investing and pondered on Spicejet’s remarkable fall from the heavens. In the December of 2014, Spicejet had dealt a serious blow to the Indian aviation industry by disclosing its internal troubles and abruptly scrapping all operations of the airline. The news came as a huge shock to the entire industry and the company’s shares went into a free fall.
At that point in time, almost the entire industry had prematurely declared that Spicejet was officially dead. It was widely believed that like Kingfisher Airlines, Spicejet too had fallen prey to the perilous aviation troubles. The news soon faded into oblivion and everything seemed calm. Gradually, the company even started its operations in limited capacity. But, analysts and pundits had already given the call- that Spicejet would for a long time be irrelevant in the Indian aviation scenario.
Exactly one year has passed and its time that we take stock of where the company stands right now. One might expect the company to be still dragging behind, trying to fix its operations, bring in some additional investment. Well, some of that is happening. But, the most astonishing fact is that the company is actually making a comeback.
For comparative perspective, take for example Air India, the age old airline which has been riddled with losses since its inception. The national carrier still lies there. But, Spicejet has been able to pull a feat so remarkable that it really does deserve the Best Airline award in terms of the company that did the most catching up. Spicejet has been in the profitable category for the past three months. Just 9 months after it almost went bust, forget about revival, the company is already heading towards a growth trajectory.
The company has also been boasting a consistent capacity level of around 90 percent, which is not shabby at all for an airline which nearly shut its operations almost a year ago. And this is the biggest success the company has achieved in the past one year. Managing the operations and restructuring the company is one thing, however, regaining the flyers’ confidence is a whole different ball game; and that too of the Indian flyers.
It’s as if a favorable wind was enabling the airline to still stay afloat in the skies. Before falling apart, the airline held around 20 percent market share of the Indian Aviation industry. It lost a lot of ground, but the level of catching up it has done is phenomenal.
Spicejet’s revival is closely linked to a few important market factors which have a direct bearing on the airline’s day to day operations. The most important of those has been low oil prices. Aviation fuel prices have been at their lowest as compared to the past few years. In addition to that, the annual increase in passengers has also added to some increased capacity generation. All in all, favorable environmental factors have given Spicejet enough leeway to get its Act in order.
The excellent show from Spicejet does not mean that they were the only ones that outshined in the entire sector. The Gurgaon based Indigo Airlines has come out on top once again this year. While Spicejet was still scrambling to cover lost ground, other airlines and especially Indigo has registered tremendous growth in their market shares and revenues.
In all of this, one man alone has been hailed as the savior and guiding angel for the airline. That person is Mr. Ajay Singh who has been bringing in a slew of changes to bring the airline back on track. Spicejet’s closing balance sheet for this year will be the sole marker for the huge improvement in the fortunes of the company and of Mr. Singh of course. The biggest asset of Mr. Singh has been his contacts in the industry which enabled him to easily negotiate with financers and aircraft leasing firms and securing terms which were favorable for the airline. An effective operation is the name of the game; yet it will not be completely moral to give the entire credit to the team currently running Spicejet. Had the crucial environmental factors not pitched in, this congratulatory story would have gone in whole different direction.
But, the good thing is that the owners do accept this humble fact and are not ostensibly buoyed by the magnanimous performance of the carrier. The best way to cope in these challenging times is to remain focused at keeping costs low and gauging all the factors before taking any path breaking decisions. According to market forecasts, crude oil prices will be gaining normalcy in the latter half of the coming year 2016. That will mean that the new model of Spicejet will be put to the real test. However, given their current trajectory, there is not much to worry about. The carrier is back again in good hands.
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