The Perils of Airline Investing: The Spicejet Crisis

When the Wright brothers came up with the idea of a machine that could fly, they were brandished as the buffoons of the century. And naturally, their idea found no traction with the investors (read: wealthy people of the 20^th century). But, that was indeed the 20^th century, where anyone with a revolutionary idea was effectively termed a lunatic.

But, a hundred years later, things are quite the opposite. As the trend goes, the more ridiculous the idea, the more backing it gets from modern day investors. The latest being Elon Musk’s ridiculous (or not) idea of high speed travel, or in the words of the famous Science Fiction writer Jules Verne; Teleportation.

So, the bottom line is that the 21^st Century is a boon for companies looking for investors. But, then there is this one industry that is the investor’s nightmare; the dreaded Airline industry. While the industry has come a long way from the era of the Wright brothers, yet, it stumps even the most seasoned investors.

It remains till date a most volatile market to be invested in. And the recent Spicejet crisis is just another chapter in this book. A company, which upon its inception shaped out to be the game changer in the domestic airline industry in India, was seen crumbling like a set of dominoes.

And the problem does not lie with the market. The India Civil Aviation Industry comes among the top 10 biggest aviation markets.  It carries around 150 million passengers on a daily basis; and this number is expected to increase to 450 million by 2020. It has been repeatedly established that this sector has a huge latent demand, just waiting to be tapped into. With new companies joining the airline bandwagon each year (the latest being Air Asia and TATA’s Vistara), the sector should be going through immense growth, right? Not really.

While the sector is growing rapidly, it’s mainly because of the growing demand for air travel; due to economic development and increase in the disposable income of the people. In most cases, the companies drive the industry towards growth. But, in terms of this particular industry, the companies are acting as dead weight.

As soon as it gains normalcy and stability, a huge setback is dealt. Spicejet was considered a pioneer in the sector of budget air travel, but the recent blow to the company has knocked it out of the race for some time. And Jet Airways and Indigo are going to be the biggest gainers in this mess.

The root of Spicejet’s downfall lies at its overzealous pricing strategies. In order, to win over market share, it offered heavy discounts on its tickets, the year round.  It offered tickets at over 15% lesser than other airlines. The logic behind the company’s decision was sound. The surge in demand should have factored for the discounts. But, it didn’t.  And what started as a marketing strategy, turned into an organizational blunder.

Somewhere down the line, the company became obsessed with the idea of increasing demand, figuring that it was bound to rise eventually. But, the intense competition from Indigo and Jet prevented that from happening. It’s almost as if the entire finance department of the company went into a slumber while the marketing department was out playing.

And apart from the company, the biggest losers in this mess were the investors. This debacle hit like a blow out of the blue. The shares of the company had got a big boost last month when billionaire investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala purchased 7.5 million shares in the company, leading to huge market gains for the investors as the stock price soared.

A growing stock price, big investments are all favorable trading signs for investors. But, when the company hit the emergency button this month, it was pandemonium all over. The market share of Spicejet fell by around 17 per cent. The market cap of the company fell by around 400 crore rupees.  According to company estimates, it needs an infusion of around 1800 to 2000 crores to regain stability. For now, the situation seems to have calmed down with help from the government and the company’s promoter Mr. Ajay Singh, who is being hailed as the Knight in shining armor for the company.

Coming back to the issue, it really is quite evident now that the whole sector is highly volatile; like a nuclear reactor just waiting to melt down.  There are quite a few factors that contribute to this volatility; intense competition, fluctuating variable costs, which include unprecedented changes in the prices of aviation fuel, etc.

Apart from the above factors, several other factors include poor corporate governance, messy financial reports and lack of investor insight. It’s a very difficult market to invest into and many have had their fingers burned.  It is very difficult to judge when the yields of the airline might be in the red.

So, if you were planning to invest in some airline, be cautious. Many finance pundits have already marked it as a ‘NO-NO’ if you are looking for personal investing. Leave this industry to the big guns. Or if you do like to be the daredevil, do not dare to even blink; because you never know when the tide might turn.

Is The World Moving towards a Cashless Society?

Fun Fact: The earliest origins of money can be traced as far back as 9000BC, where grains were generally used as a form of money for exchange of goods.  Later came gold coins, then copper coins and now, here we are at paper notes.  The one notable change that can be seen here is the fact that the tangibility of money is slowly decreasing over the years.

Hear me out; the first official modes of currency were coins made of precious metals. This went on for some centuries, when suddenly, it was shifted to lesser materials like copper or bronze and even silver.  Then, in a sort of a new age revolution, paper currency notes were brought into use by the Europeans in the 17^th century (Another Fun Fact: The Chinese were the actual inventors of paper currency and were using it for more than 500 years before the Europeans).

 

The ancient form of money- copper and bronze coins

So, it’s been another 400 years or so, since paper currency is being used as a prominent method of exchange of goods (read: transaction). But, if you look closely at the trend in the market, the signs of its demise are pretty evident. As we rapidly move into a digital society, paper currency is bound to die.

Money was first truly digitized with the introduction of credit cards in America in the 1970s. Before that, a stable financial credit system run by a third party (in this case a bank), which was accepted by most of the merchants did not exist. And thus emerged, Visa and Master Card and other players of digital money.

Various plastic money vendors

Like every new innovation, it took its time to become popular, but now, here we are, using cashless money with great ease in our daily lives. So much so, that without our realization, paper currency is slowly dying. With the Reserve Bank looking to standardize plastic currency after a short trial in a few states, it seems the end is near.

But, India and even many developed countries have a long way to go towards the path of a cashless world. In fact, Sweden has come out as the country that is the closest to a cashless society. On an average, every single person in Sweden makes almost 260 transactions using their credit and debit cards per year.

An army of credit and debit cards are on offer from almost every bank

The reason behind this shift in mode of ‘preferable’ form of currency is the strong force by which technology is shaping and evolving our world. Cashless transactions are not only more flexible, but, surprisingly, more secure too. Unified shopping markets like supermarkets and hypermarts are only fueling this process.  Almost anywhere you go, you’ll find a card machine just waiting for your card to get swiped. And even the financial market is promoting their use, for the simple fact that they are comparatively much easier to process and handle, than traditional currency.

Online transactions have further reduced the physical footprint of currency. The physical swiping of the card has also been nullified, with secure alpha-numerical passcodes being used to safeguard your transactions.

Apple Pay and Google Wallet

So, this is where the next big leap in money transactions comes into the picture. It’s a universal fact now that mobile technology is a powerful force and almost all digital traffic is currently hogged by it. So, the whole premise here is that over the past year Apple and Google introduced a new revolutionary way of making transactions (As if cashless online payments weren't revolutionary enough).

So, almost every decent smartphone in the market has an NFC (Near Field Communication) chip built into them today. But, for the average consumer, until now, it was just useless gimmick.  But, as it turns out, these mammoth of companies, do think ahead. So, they have developed a new method of wirelessly making transactions using your mobile phones; even the manual typing of passcodes has been slashed.

Wireless transaction through Apple Pay

The smartphone in your hand will smartly enough, store all your collection of plastic money (read: credit &debit cards) in a single, “secure” place on your phone. And with that, you can wirelessly make payments by just hovering your device just near the payment machine, with a single tap.

Wow! Right? Not exactly. What’s skeptical here is the fact that mobile technology (as wonderful as it is) is still flawed; and not too secure either, as evident from various hacking scandals that come up from time to time.  So, would you trust your mobile manufacturer with all your accumulated wealth? That is the biggest question that remains unanswered.

While these companies do promise complete privacy and many other complex innovations that are supposed to keep our transactions safe or in other words crime free. But, that can only be ascertained, when we actually see this technology in action.

We are still too early in the game and surely, THIS IS THE FUTURE.  But, the present? I really don’t think so.  But, this much is clear that we are hurtling towards a cashless society. The next time you go shopping or buy something, notice the change, and you’ll know what I mean. 

LIGHTS OUT! for PC

Personal Computer. Desktop. Do these words ring a bell somewhere? The concept of personal computers took off as the next big thing in the 90s and all through the first half of the 21^st century. And it did turn out as the BIG thing in the tech sector. But, Twenty years down the line, things are not very rosy.

The very component of technology that kickstarted a whole new race for providing customized and personalized computing services to the common man, is sadly, yet surely coming to an end.  Hot Shot manufacturers all over the world are in a flux. For all we know, the dwindling market share of personal computers may also drag their producers into the ground. 

It’s a bold new world out there. The sheer force by which smartphones have captured the market is mesmerizing. The temperament in the Tech industry is so unrelenting, that the innocent PC didn’t even know what hit it. It’s a shipwreck; and only a handful managed to escape unscathed. HP and Dell are the companies that have been hit the worst by this unforeseen crisis.  It’s a chapter out of Sydney Sheldon’s darkest novels. No metaphor would be sufficient to describe the morbidity of the situation.

Smartphones have efficiently replaced and enhanced all those services and features that people earlier used to do on their laptops or computers. The hard truth is that smartphones and tablets are highly capable of doing everything that your old PC did; and more. Word processing, Spreadsheets, Presentations, you name it and they do it; and do it better no less.

The one product that is in part responsible for the decline of the PC is something called a Mini-PC (No, it’s not a Net book). It is a cube sized piece of hardware that is essentially a PC. Just like an External Hard Disk. And all you need to do with it is connect it to a screen of your choice. But, it hasn’t turned out the way it should have, and is currently a product that only an IT guru or a geek would purchase.

The change is happening not only on the hardware or the manufacturer’s front. The whole infrastructure is being adapted to enhance the smartphone and tablet market. The PC does not even get the tiniest part of the pie.  With businesses encouraging BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) culture and offering Work from Home incentives, there is no reason that mobile technology will die down soon. Not for another year at least (That’s how unpredictable things have become).

The PC market is seeing a yearly decline of almost 2 percent. Now, you’re probably thinking that Microsoft just launched their latest version of Windows, so what this idiot is blabbering about. True; they did launch their latest software, but it’s just their own personal agenda that they are continuing with Apple since the era of Steve Jobs. The truth is that every tech company is slowly and quite evidently shutting down their PC development units. All R&D is focused on mobile tech units a.k.a smartphones and tablets. Dell and HP are catching up with their own line of tablets being launched recently, but I’m afraid they’re doing too little too late.

The reason behind the failure of these tech giants is the simple fact, that they are not trained in playing catch up. And for the first time since their inception, they are being forced to do so. But, there is one unsung hero among all these companies, who like The Dark Knight (pardon my comic book lingo) is managing to turn things around for this doomed market; and that is Apple. At their latest launch event, Apple revealed that they managed to sell 5.52 million unit of their hugely popular product- The Mac.

Can you imagine? In a market that’s declining at a yearly rate of 2%, their Mac saw a growth rate of 21 per cent over the previous year. So, in my opinion, it might not be lights out yet. At least for the Mac it isn’t. But, still, PCs won’t be the dominant force that they once used to be. Their moment in the sunlight is over.

So, those of you planning to buy a laptop or a desktop PC this festive season, choose wisely. Buying a laptop or PC may not be the best option. And let me also take a moment to indulge my inner Nostradamus and make a prediction- In another two years, we might also be talking the same way about smartphones and tablets as we are now about PCs. The future beholds the wonderful gift of Wearable Technology. Check out the Google Glass and a barrage of smart watches that were launched this year, if you don’t believe me. 

Social Media Marketing

There has always been a major problem with almost all Indian businesses- an inherent lack of marketing. A typical Indian businessman thinks that marketing is a fad used only by the top corporate houses and huge MNCs. That too because they need to utilize their huge stockpiles of cash.

But, are we living in the same generation today, where a business relied on just word of mouth and the most basic and primary modes of advertising to promote itself? Obviously not! And we have modern technology to thank for that. So, by now you are probably wondering when the hell am I going to skip to the part that's useful. But, don't blame me, I like to go for flashy introductions.

The neatest advances in marketing have been made in the past decade or so. And the major reason for that is, the emergence of a catalyst. The catalyst being technology. Thanks to the modern forms of communication, opportunity has been handed over to marketers on a silver plate. So, now marketing instead of being limited to the traditional 'markets' has now blown up and invaded every facet of our lives. Today, its really hard to find a place where you won't find a single trace of advertising. And ion my opinion, its freaking awesome.

But, my concern remains, as reflected in my opening lines, that this wonderful tool is still limited to big corporations and media houses and MNCs.  And till a while back, it was understandable, as the costs of marketing was high. But, that's history now. Modern  marketers have been gifted with a tool, that requires almost no money at all. and that tool is SOCIAL MEDIA.

According to a recent survey, 73% of the tweens in India are active users of Social Media. Look at the size of that target market! Truly amazing.  And this is not limited to urban metros only. This includes all cities and towns. The youth of this country is stuck on social media. An average user spends almost 20 minutes on social media sites daily.

Online marketing is a trend that is fast catching on to businesses. And the best part about it, you don't need to be earning big bucks to advertise on it. Social media provides a humongous market, just waiting to be tapped into. Anyone with a business, a product, a firm, a service, or even an idea can now easily reach to the millions of users on these sites.

So, its fast, cost efficient and carries the potential of mass outreach. But, the one effort that it does require, is persistence. In order to get traction, you need to have patience and above all, perseverance. 

The first step towards a successful social media campaign is:

Build an Audience

Once you have set up your page and profile, start promoting your page. Ask friends and family to help out. Reach out to as many people as you can. Tap into that monstrosity of a friend list that you have been flaunting all the time. Patience is key. Rome wasn't built in a day. Or if you prefer desi metaphors, it took more than 22 years to build Taj Mahal.  Be patient, and you will be rewarded. Keep posting interesting stuff while you are still waiting for your following to grow.

If your content is good enough, people are sure to pay attention to your page. And if you do not want to wait long enough, many social media sites like facebook also provide an option of manually advertising to a larger audience in exchange for money.

Launch innovative campaigns and offers

People love schemes and offers,especially Indians. We crave all the free stuff. So, use this to your advantage. Launch some form of blitz campaign to keep your followers to stay. Tell them about the new products or services you have launched or are about to launch. Celebrate your milestones with your followers. Social media marketing works, only if you consider you audience as and your business as a community. Indians tend to have huge egos, so try not to touch that nerve. EVER.

And the  most important step of them all-

Strictly Avoid any breaks

The biggest mistake that anyone using social media marketing can make is; taking a break. Social Media will never forgive you for that. The relationships made on Social Media are strong, yet, highly volatile. If you disturb the balance of things, it will cost you heavily. It is very important to keep the steam running. Once a page starts losing steam, it is very hard to turn things around.

The Social Media scene is here to stay. The West has a lead on us and is heavily using it to market anything and everything. If anything is worth selling, it can be marketed on social media. It eventually pays back the little costs it does involve, all by itself. It is a service that actually pays for itself. What else do you need?

The Flipkart Vs Amazon War

I think I made the title way too obvious. It has robbed me of the opportunity to introduce the topic any further. Yes, it is now a full blown war between these two. And gueess what? All of us have front row seats to the showdown. But, does everyone know what's actually happening? Let's try to analyze how an Indian startup locked horns with the biggest ecommerce company in the world. Oh, the shivers.....Drumroll please.

As most of us are familiar Flipkart was founded in 2007 by two ambitious IIT Delhi graduates Sachin Bansal and Binny Bansal. And here comes the ironical twist in the story... both of them were previously working for Amazon. Whoa... Isn't this the stuff bollywood flicks are made of? 

So, these two ambitious guys decided to try their luck at the whole startup scene by copying their employee's formula. They even applied the same business model. Initially, Flipkart focussed only on books. Well, no wonder Amazon is pissed. 

At that time the e-commerce scene in India was in modest words, catastrophic. The corporate sector, didn't even bat an eye over this startup, as everyone knew that the e-commerce market in India was a ditch. So, no one ever thoght that Flipkart would ever go further than selling books on the internet. But, it surely did. And they did so in style.

They managed to gain more investors and finally hired a marketing team, which gave way to their first TV commercial. 

So, for the first time in the history of e-commerce in India, a company had come along that had managed to grab attention. Their services were highly effective in the Urban metros and their products appealed to scores of youngsters. 

But, Sachin and Binny knew that they would not be able to survive unless they diversified their product line.

In came Tiger Global who pumped $10M into the company. And three months later, Flipkart introduced a new product line, which would take its fortunes to a whole new level. The product was Mobiles and Accessories. No one would have thought that the same Indians who heckled the salesmen at local electronics shops before buying a measely Juicer Mixer Grinder, would be purchasing mobile phones off the internet.

Their plan had worked. Flipkart had managed to get into the homes of Inidans with their amazingly low prices and even greater delivery channels. The road forward saw Flipkart raise a total of $170M in funding from various investors, the majority investment by Tiger Global. Their product line expanded even further as Flipkart became an online supermarket, selling evrything from stationery to bicycles to gift items, computers and so on.

Everything was falling in place for them, until June 2013, when Amazon officially entered the Indian market. And boy, were they aggressive. They had behind them a network spread all over the world; their pockets so deep that they could remain entrenched without any funding for atleast 5 years. Amazon's entry was a matter of concern for Flipkart. Their owners were well aware that Amazon was a force to reckon with and that their days of free run had come to an end.

Amazon had arrived at a perfect time in the Indian market. The e-commerce market had already matured and bloomed, thanks to flipkart. A perfect case scenario. While all this while Flipkart had worked its way to the top, Amazon was now going to eat off of their hard work.

But, Flipkart stood tough, and in the July of this year, in came a whopping investment of $1Billion from its investors. While the Indian market was still in awe of this amazing feat by an Indian e-commerce company, the very next day came Amazon all guns blazing with a $2Billion investment. 

Amazon had made it clear to Flipkart that this was an all out war to the end. And even the Indian corporate honchos are in on it, with Wipro's Azim Premji supporting Flipkart, while Infosys's NRN Murthy going for Amazon.

But, enough about history and facts and figures. In the coming year or two what's going to matter is how Flipkart is going to respond to the severe competetion that it will face at the hands of Amazon. This war can be easily compared to a game of poker. Flipkart called and Amazon raised the ante. But, Flipkart cannot continue to use this hand for long, because as I mentioned above, Amazon has deep pockets and they are fully capable of raising Flipkart's every call. 

The question that excites me the most is, that eventually, will Flipkart go All-in or will it succumb and be taken over?

The important thing to take from here, is that in this war, the beneficaiaries will be the customers. They will witness as two wonderful companies match blow by blow, bringing out services that will revolutionize the Indian e-commerce market. 

P.S- To those of you who who are going all Gandhian over the point that Indians should support Flipkart because its an Indian company, recheck your facts. Flipkart is registered in Singapore. Almost all of its investors are foreign. So, that does not make it an Indian company. What should really affect your choice is, which company suits your needs better.

For more discussion on this topic and feedback please email me at sidshrma@outlook.com